Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) went public on June 12 at $135 per share. At that price, the company had a market value of $1.77 trillion, making SpaceX the largest IPO stock in history.

SpaceX peaked at $202 per share in mid-June, but the stock has since declined about 30% to $140 per share due to concerns about heavy spending and lock-up expirations. History says this will happen next.

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History says SpaceX's stock will drop further by June 2027

IPO stocks often pop during their first few days on the market. More than 9,000 companies have listed shares on U.S. exchanges since 1980, and the average stock gained 19% on day one, according to Jay Ritter, a finance professor at the University of Florida.

SpaceX fit that historical pattern perfectly. The stock closed at $161 per share on its first day of trading, precisely 19% above its IPO price of $135 per share. But the stock is currently 30% below its high due to market concerns about heavy spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure and upcoming lock-up expirations.

Unfortunately, history says SpaceX stock could decline further in the coming months. Large IPO stocks have generally performed poorly during their first year on the public market:

Among the 10 largest U.S. IPO stocks by market value since 2006, the average stock fell 34% from its IPO price at some point during the first year. If SpaceX matches that historical pattern, the stock will drop to $89 per share before June 2027. That implies 36% downside from its current share price of $140.

Among the 10 largest U.S. IPO stocks by market value since 2006, the average stock traded 12% below its IPO price after its first year on the market. If SpaceX matches that historical pattern, the stock will trade at $119 per share by June 2027. That implies a 15% downside from its current share price.

Here's the big picture: Statistically speaking, SpaceX stock is likely to decline further in the coming months. But historical data is never a guarantee of future returns. Whether SpaceX stock moves higher or lower depends primarily on the company's financial results and investor sentiment.

SpaceX's free cash flow was -$25 billion through the first half of 2026

SpaceX is a vertically integrated business with operations across three segments: space, connectivity, and AI. The company has an important economic moat in reusable rockets, which have substantially reduced the cost to launch payloads into orbit. That competitive edge helped SpaceX build Starlink, the largest satellite internet service in the world.