Despite the scale of the supply disruption, oil prices have not surged as sharply as initially feared. Combined crude and refined-product stocks have dropped around 555 million barrels over the course of the war, a drawdown that amounts to only about a third of what the bank had originally forecast. Demand also came in roughly 4.4 million barrels per day lower than the same period last year, cushioning the blow from reduced supply. The bank wrote that the market had managed to take on a historic shortfall by drawing far more on weakened consumption than on stored supplies, keeping crude from mounting a durable rally. Brent has averaged $94 a barrel since the conflict began.