A view of commercial cargo vessels and crude oil tankers are anchored in the Gulf of Oman, off the coast of Muscat, Oman, on June 21, 2026, as they prepare to transit through the critical Strait of Hormuz. Shady Alassar | Anadolu | Getty Images

Hello, this is Leonie Kidd coming to you from London. Welcome to another edition of CNBC's Daily Open. It is an important moment to mark — crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz have returned to prewar levels. But at what cost? Diesel prices are at a record high at the pump, and refined product supply remains constrained, creating serious problems for the global economy. Read on for more.

What you need to know today

Crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz have essentially returned to prewar levels. According to research from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Kpler, exports transiting through the Strait have hit a seven-day average of 13.5 million barrels per day, matching the prewar baseline. But pricing remains a source of pain. Refined product supplies remain constrained, with shipments still far below average. U.S. President Donald Trump has said he is still considering a ban on diesel exports, in an effort to bring down prices, which have recently hit record highs at the pump. Both Brent and WTI are both lower in early trading on Thursday.

First day of the fourth quarter

Thursday marks the first trading day of the fourth quarter, with bond market jitters still looming large over global stock markets. Treasury yields remain elevated despite a softer inflation reading in the U.S., with PCE for August up 3.4%. Speaking to CNBC's Steve Liesman, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said, "inflation is still too high... it's been elevated now for more than five years. I didn't think the inflation data today really changed that story for me very much." Futures point to a flat start to October trading, amid a lighter trading day in Asia with both China and Hong Kong closed for market holidays. You can read more on how September closed out here.

Model behaviour

Google has become the latest tech titan to unveil a new AI model. Gemini 4 Argon is the company's most advanced yet, with coding and cybersecurity features. Google plans to launch the new model in phases. Meanwhile, Meta stock has logged its best month since 2022. Shares jumped almost 30% in September as investors cheered the release of its Muse personal AI agent. Find out which two chip stocks could be on the verge of joining the $2 trillion tech giant club here. — Leonie Kidd

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